Premier League · resolved market
Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b934e368f50f215d9eef7a75a66392ab6161141e85c7d5eeefcec5775f6f2c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 117 | 27.4%32 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,039$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.83 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 22c | 603.54$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 57c | 578.04$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.31 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 294.3$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Over | 20c | 169.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 239 | 20.9%50 W · 189 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 74c | 164.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Over | 28c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 20c | 54.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 33.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 79c | 30.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 78c | 27.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Under | 80c | 23.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 79c | 13.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)Swansea City AFC won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Swansea City AFC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.