Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9682b02b4a9596425616257b065cff6b5fa1900ae53e6cbae51366e07c8456
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,217 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 11,501$4,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,605.78 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 75c | 10,000$7,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,493.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 55c | 7,777$4,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,273.49 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 45c | 6,700$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.94 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 41c | 6,539$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,888.97 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 2,627$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.98 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 41c | 2,579$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.11 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 1,101$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.02 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 45c | 824.55$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.05 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 506.79$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.24 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 404.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.28 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 46c | 341.61$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.15 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 45c | 325.84$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 56c | 316.27$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Under | 45c | 233.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 45c | 215.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 70c | 210.88$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 56c | 178.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 48c | 140$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 18c | 124.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 55c | 121.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 44c | 112.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 45c | 110.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 30c | 103$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 44c | 90.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 86.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 19c | 76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 46c | 71.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 44c | 64.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Under | 55c | 53.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 45c | 43.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 55c | 32.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 45c | 23.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…2434backed Under | 46c | 23.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 55c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…ae82backed Under | 55c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…16c3backed Over | 55c | 18.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5this page
- St. Louis City SC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.