Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9a46030e8e1bcf0d97193187a0165e42474d9a27f63b0f2bceb900d1e5ca90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Aroucaof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, FC Arouca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,323 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 20c | 1,250$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.16 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 10c | 1,180$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 569.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed FC Arouca | 47c | 482.87$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…46adbacked FC Arouca | 49c | 388.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…78e9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 352.55$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 32c | 338.47$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Arouca | 68c | 338.47$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed FC Arouca | 50c | 302.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 51c | 202.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d2…a07abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 51c | 185.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed FC Arouca | 47c | 180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 18c | 88.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 50c | 70.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Arouca | 48c | 70.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Arouca | 48c | 45.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Arouca | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 51c | 41.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked FC Arouca | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked FC Arouca | 62c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 50c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.