Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd235fff15060cb19d95ec1e88ed274b885fd76a31ce7cf790041415d73df1dae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,147 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 17,666$4,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,796.27 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 79c | 13,228$10,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.82 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 3,859$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.96 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 66c | 2,600$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.94 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 60c | 1,395$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 24c | 1,232$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.78 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 980.46$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.35 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 62c | 923.81$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.81 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 738.31$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.62 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 39c | 731.87$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 62c | 728.78$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.78 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Under | 17c | 700$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Over | 74c | 699.45$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.86 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 25c | 658.95$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 75c | 521.33$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc5…ada3backed Over | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 14c | 407.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked Over | 74c | 339.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 256.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…eedfbacked Over | 72c | 245$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 18c | 235$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 27c | 233.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Over | 67c | 218.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 203.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked Under | 65c | 200.63$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 18c | 199.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 26c | 180.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 175.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 63c | 158.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…1a43backed Over | 56c | 150.27$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 149.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 79c | 126.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 34c | 90.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 62c | 88.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Over | 65c | 85.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Over | 62c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Under | 45c | 82.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 66c | 75.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 75c | 74.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 54c | 71.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101a…a4d2backed Over | 67c | 58.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 123 | 61%75 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Under | 49c | 48.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…a6cebacked Under | 67c | 43.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 28c | 42.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 26c | 41.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Over | 47c | 39.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 40c | 37.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 74c | 30.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +12.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…86d9backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…5587backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 65c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.