Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbccfef36f7c6003c5532189471b0f8d48a966afce08198703043dcc28e0ed9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,192 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 2,748$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.13 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 1,277$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.41 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 26c | 1,225$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.09 | 123 | 19.5%24 W · 99 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 80c | 330$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed Over | 21c | 144.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 138.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 21c | 131.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 20c | 122.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 112.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Under | 79c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Arouca vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)FC Arouca won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)FC Arouca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.