South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ba7fbaac7a6044918785f807c7d4b66caeabccb1cb92c4816c047ddbda61ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 5,081$2,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,986.43 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 56c | 1,092$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.4 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 1,087$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.09 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 552.44$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.07 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 548.54$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.01 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 64c | 499.99$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.41 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 28c | 497.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.82 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 15c | 465$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 15c | 457.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 72c | 409.31$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.99 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 14c | 299.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +483.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 38c | 291.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.86 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 60c | 272.27$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 66c | 267.91$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.82 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 230.02$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 48c | 230$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 52c | 219.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…88cbbacked Over | 44c | 185.13$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 168.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 73c | 110.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Under | 75c | 109.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 70c | 105.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…3e26backed Over | 23c | 97.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 67c | 87.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 38c | 79.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 71c | 78.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 63c | 77.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Under | 59c | 69.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Over | 56c | 67.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 26c | 67.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 46c | 66.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 62c | 63.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 62c | 63.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Under | 72c | 61.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 59c | 56.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…fd44backed Over | 46c | 47.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Over | 38c | 46.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 47c | 33.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 47c | 33.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 51c | 25.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…fe4cbacked Over | 44c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Over | 61c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 59c | 18.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 59c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Sarmiento (-1.5)Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.