MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb2b09ad7028489f6998e9a06180f06e76f8d16110be637a18620731a8c783c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 16,738$8,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,575.7 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 10,267$5,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.17 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 52c | 3,079$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.93 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 38c | 2,696$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 69c | 2,610$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.08 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…6fedbacked Over | 64c | 1,610$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 51c | 970.6$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.01 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 866.62$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 29c | 854.09$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.22 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 50c | 693.8$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.84 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 586.2$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.82 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 51c | 485.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 49c | 404.59$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 52c | 391.12$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.38 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 52c | 375.72$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.38 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 8c | 355.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 342.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…7291backed Over | 52c | 310.04$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 306.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 33c | 293.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.92 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad77…3d8ebacked Over | 52c | 292.5$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 51c | 291.18$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 35c | 288.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 53c | 194.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Over | 51c | 186.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 184.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Under | 49c | 163.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 115.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…9715backed Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 54c | 89.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 48c | 88.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Over | 50c | 88.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0197backed Over | 50c | 85.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 52c | 76.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Over | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Under | 50c | 57.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 63c | 46.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 53c | 43.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Under | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 36.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 52c | 36.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 51c | 35.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 53c | 31.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Under | 51c | 27.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.