Serie A · resolved market
Will Verona win on 2025-08-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb8e224e6a400a9e91d91782e6ecf654f6b50e4475be7949ee666006927f1b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 3,050$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 80c | 2,388$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.68 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 4c | 2,110$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 79c | 1,858$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 22c | 1,725$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,222$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 80c | 743.31$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 306.64$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 20c | 157$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…58a6backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…77c4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…7767backed Yes | 21c | 57.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 21c | 56.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 78c | 52.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…443bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 78c | 38.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 80c | 26.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -8.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Verona win on 2025-08-25?this page
- Will Udinese vs. Verona end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Udinese win on 2025-08-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.