Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8befaf490a0dae646ae16d079bf73d30ab32bbf416895911ac0b2729e48ca73e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa128…541ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 26c | 282.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 27c | 171.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 118.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Yes | 64c | 99.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 40c | 97.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 41c | 97.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 93.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…36b4backed Yes | 61c | 82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 22c | 77.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…44d7backed Yes | 40c | 71.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 38c | 69.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 66.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…bddcbacked Yes | 58c | 58.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +13.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 38.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 50c | 35.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…b03ebacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…fd93backed Yes | 60c | 21.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.