Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Shnaider
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf19d16d78707fd8d4db30939f17b8e59ef7b19beee40a9de92745270f4d481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tausonof Tauson, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Shnaider | 64c | 4,689$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016.57 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tauson | 35c | 1,710$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.38 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Tauson | 35c | 1,700$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.97 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…698cbacked Shnaider | 63c | 1,696$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.71 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf764…61e6backed Shnaider | 18c | 1,272$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 237 | 23.6%56 W · 181 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tauson | 74c | 1,155$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Tauson | 36c | 1,048$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.74 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Tauson | 36c | 933.2$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.51 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tauson | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shnaider | 65c | 499.98$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tauson | 37c | 464.08$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tauson | 36c | 365$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.6 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Shnaider | 65c | 307.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.06 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Tauson | 72c | 212.68$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Shnaider | 65c | 202$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tauson | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Shnaider | 66c | 199$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Shnaider | 65c | 189.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…dd87backed Shnaider | 29c | 167.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tauson | 64c | 143.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Shnaider | 73c | 89.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Shnaider | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Shnaider | 65c | 76.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Tauson | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Shnaider | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 273 | 53.1%145 W · 128 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Shnaider | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tauson | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Shnaider | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Shnaiderthis page
- Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana ShnaiderClara Tauson won
- Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5)Tauson won
- Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)Tauson won
- Tauson vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.