Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bf52929399dc9c893e24a97b222fdf74f4a1dd3a92bb35e4d5d230a8d111cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbff…c483backed Yes | 2c | 594$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 12c | 491.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.69 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 10c | 306.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.76 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…751ebacked No | 8c | 205$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 9c | 192.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 11c | 173.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 15c | 171.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 76c | 165.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 65c | 165.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 9c | 157.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed No | 31c | 150.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7746…2aa2backed No | 25c | 146.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed Yes | 66c | 135.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 9c | 111.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 12c | 100.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 13c | 93.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 14c | 86.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 64.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 32c | 62.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…062fbacked Yes | 71c | 56.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 68c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 35c | 50.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 65c | 41.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 79c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed Yes | 56c | 29.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 54c | 26.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 68c | 20.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 73c | 14.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 76c | 14.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.