Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Mensik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c41c0fcde1fe571106a68a3c949ea274c3ec17210a05d25e48c07569a79b7e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nakashima | 41c | 1,323$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.55 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Nakashima | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 57c | 699.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.29 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mensik | 38c | 542.21$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.85 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Mensik | 30c | 518.13$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.44 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mensik | 53c | 262.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nakashima | 76c | 262.03$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…f4f1backed Mensik | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Nakashima | 19c | 202$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Mensik | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nakashima | 80c | 157.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Nakashima | 57c | 151$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Mensik | 45c | 100.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Mensik | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Nakashima | 51c | 88.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Nakashima | 37c | 87.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mensik | 43c | 63.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2842…e81bbacked Nakashima | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nakashima | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Nakashima | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Mensik | 43c | 48.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mensik | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…4b61backed Nakashima | 61c | 27.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Mensikthis page
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Jakub Mensik: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jakub MensikBrandon Nakashima won
- Nakashima vs. Mensik: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Mensik: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Mensik: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Mensik: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs MensikMensik won
- Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.