TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ITF Kramsach: Luca Staeheli vs Matyas Kozlovsky

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luca Staeheliof Luca Staeheli, Matyas Kozlovsky
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4d2…ce99backed Matyas Kozlovsky16c3,991$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.124,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Matyas Kozlovsky13c1,210$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Matyas Kozlovsky7c675.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5092355.8%515 W · 408 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Matyas Kozlovsky7c405.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3092554.8%507 W · 418 L+15.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Matyas Kozlovsky15c360.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8624634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf9…8292backed Matyas Kozlovsky5c341.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7358857.7%339 W · 249 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Matyas Kozlovsky7c327.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.996049.5%475 W · 485 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Matyas Kozlovsky21c240.57$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Matyas Kozlovsky21c240.57$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked Matyas Kozlovsky21c212.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,35638.3%520 W · 836 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Matyas Kozlovsky21c198.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Matyas Kozlovsky10c180.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.066,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Matyas Kozlovsky21c141.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3065434.9%228 W · 426 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Matyas Kozlovsky21c117.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Luca Staeheli80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2056153.7%301 W · 260 L+19.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Luca Staeheli66c78.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4989663.7%571 W · 325 L+63.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bd1…f311backed Matyas Kozlovsky16c76.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1225551%130 W · 125 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8920…9c0cbacked Matyas Kozlovsky23c67.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8429347.4%139 W · 154 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fb…3a1bbacked Luca Staeheli74c22.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7327363.4%173 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb37…189abacked Luca Staeheli50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021451.9%111 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061a…5a89backed Luca Staeheli67c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.652157%297 W · 224 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Luca Staeheli74c13.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5226664.7%172 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.