Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5b6487ee38773f9da3b304592c0ac6474ba5df6c91ada876c049d244bec7ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 49c | 269.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 38c | 179.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 50c | 161.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed No | 50c | 157.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 80c | 125.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 54c | 103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 102.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 97.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 49c | 95.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 32c | 94.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 82.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 81.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 72.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 75c | 69.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 67.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 64.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 61.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked Yes | 48c | 56.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…3567backed Yes | 66c | 53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 51.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…80cdbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…a233backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 52c | 38.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 47c | 37.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 29.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 70c | 29.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 51c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 40c | 25.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 24.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 77c | 20.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.