Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5fa606308e7a2375a195e7f7101c9f3efab8412e6f956fa606d02bea75a83a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Fils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Alcaraz | 65c | 3,405$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.66 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Fils | 36c | 2,711$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.82 | 581 | 39.9%232 W · 349 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Fils | 35c | 2,150$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fils | 19c | 1,936$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.54 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Alcaraz | 63c | 1,287$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Fils | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,125 | 42.8%482 W · 643 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Alcaraz | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Alcaraz | 67c | 601.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Alcaraz | 64c | 560$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fils | 34c | 500$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fils | 34c | 499.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Alcaraz | 64c | 399.99$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Fils | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…d06bbacked Fils | 38c | 257.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…02a0backed Fils | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Alcaraz | 64c | 184$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 432 | 42.4%183 W · 249 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…47c8backed Alcaraz | 64c | 178.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 202 | 61.4%124 W · 78 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Fils | 35c | 167.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 161 | 33.5%54 W · 107 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Fils | 37c | 148.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…275ebacked Alcaraz | 64c | 133.59$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Alcaraz | 65c | 115.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Fils | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Alcaraz | 64c | 104.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 556 | 41.2%229 W · 327 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fils | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…9178backed Fils | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Alcaraz | 64c | 79.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fils | 32c | 79.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…a56fbacked Alcaraz | 64c | 78.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Fils | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed Fils | 26c | 49.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Alcaraz | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fils | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Alcaraz | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Fils | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a9…25d5backed Alcaraz | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2012…128fbacked Alcaraz | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7aa…4dd9backed Alcaraz | 64c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…6154backed Alcaraz | 64c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur FilsAlcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs FilsAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.