Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c82235cf201f7f93bd7c29f397d14f7c4f43f5db1987e4c74c4ff5fd56ab624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 1,797$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 856.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 599.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 3c | 486.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 433.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 410.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 334.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 19c | 249$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 12c | 225.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 13c | 199.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 6c | 196.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 21c | 189.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…4330backed Yes | 18c | 189.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 162.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 13c | 161.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 19c | 158.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Yes | 13c | 156.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 78c | 153$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked Yes | 12c | 129.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…c70dbacked No | 79c | 63.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 18c | 54.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aba…20b0backed No | 80c | 32.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.