TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes43c1,324$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.341,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes39c1,021$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.9816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c845.2$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.345,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c748.9$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.955,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c748$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes72c637.06$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c633.09$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes25c543.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.5542036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No52c530.44$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.81,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c482.63$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.542,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes44c376.96$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c369.82$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes44c366.65$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No58c334.51$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.313,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes31c331.09$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4525135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No70c290.76$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2219737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes32c285$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No49c281.15$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1460054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c240$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.21,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No8c223.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.292,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c217.93$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c217.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.594,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No53c214.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5986949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c208$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.966219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes48c206.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.667146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1209832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c199.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c196$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c189$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa691…41f7backed No71c186.89$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.122138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes32c176.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c175.69$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.133,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes33c171.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.121,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c164.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes29c151.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.052,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes46c150.98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.532,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No52c149.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes61c149.9$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8447136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0615…d288backed Yes36c143.44$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.441275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes36c139$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.965841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c137$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.014,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No59c132.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6241760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.329732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes49c128.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-74.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes31c127.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0233351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No72c121.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5928455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No37c119.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.773,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b6a…3c24backed Yes36c117.93$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.64850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+129%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No62c117$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.542,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No57c114.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes29c106.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.651,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes45c103$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6526540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0910030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes43c99.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.193,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No57c99.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4523666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes50c99.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.611030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c99.3$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.244,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…4330backed Yes45c96.73$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.734344.2%19 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No60c96.2$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No62c92.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes46c89.66$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.336648.5%32 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No57c89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3413351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c86.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.433,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes21c85.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.28920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No79c85$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1580560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes26c85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.581,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes48c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.22437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes22c84.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.52,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed3f…3e99backed Yes24c83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.13531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes46c80.15$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.034141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.353855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No70c79.52$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.663,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked No63c78$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0619255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd636…10efbacked No56c76.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.252347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.854,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No25c74.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.414,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No52c72.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6916550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No51c70.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes33c69.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.241,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f10…9d99backed Yes45c68.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.771764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes33c67.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.975349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc64…2c70backed Yes45c67.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.362429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes29c65.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3255538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes38c64.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes45c64.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.126439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.542151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b96…4268backed No49c62.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No20c58.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8171159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes40c57.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.717,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1415555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes31c56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6417324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.