TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c1,486$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.858,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked No66c870.78$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.248845.5%40 W · 48 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c748.9$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.835,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c710.36$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.698,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes41c618.71$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.7319737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes16c610.19$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.132,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes40c427.86$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.1795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes23c421.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes6c399.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes4c342.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes24c310.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.241,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes35c296.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8325135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c232.09$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c226.85$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.476,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No64c224.04$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6960054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes19c197$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.434,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6cfe…4325backed Yes25c196.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes35c180$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c168.16$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.695,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c166.12$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c161.12$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.783,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed Yes34c148.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c146.33$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.874,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No75c139.24$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.074,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c138$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.846219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c135$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.353,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d72…b6e0backed Yes10c132.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes40c125.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes40c118.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.091,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes66c114.84$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5263538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e2…aab7backed Yes34c113.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.591723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c112.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes36c111.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes34c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5811835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes34c107.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes28c106.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.963,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c103.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.389,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes31c103.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No69c101.62$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0940352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeab…aa66backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3726540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0615…d288backed Yes36c98.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351275%9 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes41c97.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4087629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes50c95.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.531,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No78c93.37$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed No54c92.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.913560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No64c91.48$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.645468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c89.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.653,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No66c87.43$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4941760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c86.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No53c85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9580560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c83.45$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.351,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No71c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked No44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.114034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c77.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc64…2c70backed Yes33c75.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No52c74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No80c70.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.264,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4915660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes36c68.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.651,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c56…6e66backed Yes37c66.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.545349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b6b…420fbacked Yes38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.052,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes37c64.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea4a…39c8backed Yes31c64.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022335.9%80 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes27c62.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes25c62.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3185330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.222744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.69646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes37c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes44c59.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.413540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No69c57.59$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5914934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes48c56.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9954154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52fe…c258backed Yes36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c54.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes35c53.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c53.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.322,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c51.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.145,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes34c50.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179361.3%57 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1448523.7%115 W · 370 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0751…073abacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.519255.2%106 W · 86 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes37c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No64c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.281,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9110…c879backed No42c47.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.783348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes32c44.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes34c43.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152556%14 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes29c42.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4854335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No63c42.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.817165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No72c41.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.755954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No65c41.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6591861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes45c41.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-74.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x20c0…22b4backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes37c41.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.