Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c4d3449781e7946ce0a669e7d087fadd2772a738620d790b2f9e90a7692e1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 1,486$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 66c | 870.78$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.24 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 748.9$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 710.36$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 41c | 618.71$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.73 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 610.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 427.86$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.17 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 23c | 421.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes | 4c | 342.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 310.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 35c | 296.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 232.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 226.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 224.04$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 25c | 196.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 35c | 180$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 168.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 166.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 161.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 34c | 148.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 146.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 139.24$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 135$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…b6e0backed Yes | 10c | 132.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 40c | 125.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 40c | 118.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 66c | 114.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…aab7backed Yes | 34c | 113.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 112.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 111.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 107.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 28c | 106.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 31c | 103.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 101.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…69e7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…d288backed Yes | 36c | 98.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 97.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 95.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 93.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 54c | 92.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 64c | 91.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 89.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 87.43$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 86.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 83.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 77.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…2c70backed Yes | 33c | 75.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 52c | 74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 70.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 68.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 37c | 66.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6b…420fbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 37c | 64.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 31c | 64.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 27c | 62.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 62.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 69c | 57.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 48c | 56.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 54.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 53.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 53.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 51.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 50.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed No | 42c | 47.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 44.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes | 34c | 43.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 42.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 63c | 42.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 72c | 41.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 41.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 45c | 41.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 41.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.