TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Jose State Spartansof New Mexico Lobos, San Jose State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,141 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb75…aaf9backed San Jose State Spartans53c5,000$2,650 inWon+$2,349.991145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New Mexico Lobos47c3,515$1,649 inLost-$1,649.444,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed San Jose State Spartans53c2,836$1,503 inWon+$1,332.143,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked San Jose State Spartans53c987.49$523 inWon+$464.8634343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico Lobos47c324.32$153 inLost-$153.4512,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked San Jose State Spartans61c324.15$198 inWon+$125.811850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed New Mexico Lobos47c313.94$148 inLost-$148.211,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed San Jose State Spartans52c228.24$119 inWon+$108.892,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed New Mexico Lobos50c151.46$76 inLost-$75.7315551.6%80 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked San Jose State Spartans53c149.89$80 inWon+$69.9484854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New Mexico Lobos45c102.11$46 inLost-$45.951,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked New Mexico Lobos46c75.43$35 inLost-$34.72240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c6…2e9fbacked San Jose State Spartans51c50.24$26 inWon+$24.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked New Mexico Lobos53c40$21 inLost-$21.23351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f4…e01abacked New Mexico Lobos47c34.15$16 inLost-$16.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffea…5f0abacked New Mexico Lobos49c32.12$16 inLost-$15.6811550.4%58 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e4…7197backed San Jose State Spartans54c25.7$14 inWon+$11.82475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked San Jose State Spartans47c25.07$12 inWon+$13.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.