Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cb4934ebf44f37a8f596532535ea9c3dcbeacbb56cc89569200678c1adeead7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 1,955$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 4c | 1,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…8b99backed No | 1c | 998.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 707.54$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 66c | 549$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.01 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 15c | 517.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 3c | 407.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 60c | 309.13$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 41c | 260.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.36 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…1538backed Yes | 75c | 199.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfa…84f8backed Yes | 24c | 178.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 39c | 139.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 28c | 138.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 125.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked No | 75c | 86.14$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…c68cbacked Yes | 17c | 79.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 32c | 70.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…0c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 58.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 65c | 47.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…5631backed No | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…b715backed No | 74c | 27.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…7139backed No | 76c | 21.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or below on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 75°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 71–72°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 73–74°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.