CS2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere win the ESL Katowice Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccf8585a6b5811a76ca72a114837e64baf7009713c7c8ccb50c7fd07c3b1943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 5c | 2,953$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 7c | 2,872$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.93 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,600$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 23c | 900$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ec…c1babacked Yes | 8c | 650$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 31c | 642.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.18 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed Yes | 13c | 626.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…22e7backed Yes | 7c | 621.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 601.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 75c | 265.34$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 31c | 259.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed Yes | 8c | 245.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…d2dbbacked Yes | 8c | 242.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 22c | 230.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 23c | 131.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…624abacked Yes | 24c | 105.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…427ebacked Yes | 23c | 85.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 27c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb28…c82fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 33c | 60.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6675…2e98backed Yes | 34c | 32.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…cd76backed Yes | 32c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…52f7backed No | 68c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…236dbacked No | 66c | 32.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…1f2dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…50f3backed No | 68c | 31.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803d…0229backed No | 66c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…e687backed No | 67c | 28.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…c106backed No | 67c | 25.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…b739backed No | 65c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd608…4456backed No | 68c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…94febacked No | 67c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae4…5a76backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed No | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natus Vincere win the ESL Katowice Tournament?this page
- Will Eternal Fire win the ESL Katowice Tournament?No won
- Will Team Spirit win the ESL Katowice Tournament?No won
- Will Team Vitality win the ESL Katowice Tournament?Yes won
- Will The MongolZ win the ESL Katowice Tournament?No won
- Will Virtus.Pro win the ESL Katowice Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.