Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Opelka vs. Rinderknech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd0ce93a727a9afb3663b35bf70cf1c33adff3d8b03aa68d0ecd29ae6f95c4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknech of Opelka, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Rinderknech | 48c | 4,933$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Opelka | 56c | 2,325$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rinderknech | 80c | 2,014$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.11 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Opelka | 51c | 1,981$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.06 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Opelka | 18c | 1,850$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Opelka | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Opelka | 53c | 1,257$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.57 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Opelka | 44c | 1,225$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.65 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Rinderknech | 46c | 1,105$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.66 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Rinderknech | 52c | 1,026$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.14 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…3a34backed Rinderknech | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Opelka | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5f…89c1backed Opelka | 55c | 770$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Rinderknech | 47c | 753.28$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rinderknech | 44c | 531.85$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.84 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Opelka | 53c | 522.34$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.84 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Rinderknech | 44c | 507.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.15 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Rinderknech | 47c | 481.85$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.18 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Opelka | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Rinderknech | 58c | 373.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Rinderknech | 47c | 357.97$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Opelka | 52c | 296.97$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Rinderknech | 49c | 289.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…6cdcbacked Opelka | 55c | 225$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x893a…9b52backed Opelka | 55c | 225$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Rinderknech | 46c | 219.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Opelka | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Opelka | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Opelka | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Rinderknech | 49c | 159.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Opelka | 54c | 129.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Rinderknech | 44c | 105.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Opelka | 17c | 101.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ba…a2efbacked Opelka | 56c | 92.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Opelka | 27c | 88.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Rinderknech | 43c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Opelka | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rinderknech | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Opelka | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Rinderknech | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.