Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd4f00d354c0365c78e49a4eda3a6069db0b84c66e71f8fe4571afd8c842ed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof REKONIX, Grind Back
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Grind Back | 45c | 1,620$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.97 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked REKONIX | 59c | 1,341$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.15 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Grind Back | 50c | 1,119$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.81 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Grind Back | 45c | 937.46$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.38 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked REKONIX | 57c | 879.99$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.46 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…0d84backed REKONIX | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Grind Back | 31c | 525.74$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Grind Back | 43c | 499.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX | 55c | 444.36$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.67 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked REKONIX | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.25 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…9945backed Grind Back | 50c | 396.15$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked REKONIX | 57c | 327.17$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Grind Back | 48c | 323.93$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Grind Back | 39c | 304.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed REKONIX | 61c | 301.87$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Grind Back | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked REKONIX | 56c | 292.28$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Grind Back | 41c | 257.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked REKONIX | 57c | 236.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed REKONIX | 57c | 216.23$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed REKONIX | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed REKONIX | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Grind Back | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Grind Back | 42c | 174.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed REKONIX | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Grind Back | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed REKONIX | 57c | 163.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…2de8backed REKONIX | 61c | 157.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Grind Back | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked REKONIX | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…bf55backed REKONIX | 61c | 147.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed REKONIX | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…cec8backed REKONIX | 60c | 92.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed REKONIX | 60c | 68.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked REKONIX | 62c | 56.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked REKONIX | 61c | 49.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7df1backed REKONIX | 57c | 45.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed REKONIX | 69c | 44.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked REKONIX | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked REKONIX | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…9b2bbacked Grind Back | 40c | 32.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed Grind Back | 40c | 31.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…172abacked Grind Back | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 322 | 52.5%169 W · 153 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Grind Back | 40c | 28.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked REKONIX | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…0cb5backed REKONIX | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed REKONIX | 59c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsREKONIX won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.