MLB · resolved market
ALDS: Royals vs. Yankees Game 4
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ceaac9b092efd7e6ad1a74497acffbd21ed9e03ef6a1518656652030b6d640c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Royals, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Royals | 40c | 1,505$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed Royals | 42c | 1,440$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yankees | 58c | 1,246$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.64 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Royals | 14c | 1,159$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yankees | 78c | 1,034$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.35 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Royals | 3c | 1,015$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yankees | 58c | 972.61$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Yankees | 73c | 681.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.38 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Yankees | 60c | 538.87$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yankees | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yankees | 53c | 424.91$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yankees | 59c | 420.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.58 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb7…2b81backed Royals | 36c | 400$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…e338backed Yankees | 60c | 291.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…a9bdbacked Royals | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Royals | 41c | 244.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Royals | 45c | 198.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 59c | 168.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 51c | 150.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348b…2432backed Royals | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Royals | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…8bdebacked Yankees | 58c | 99.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32dd…875abacked Royals | 43c | 98.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Royals | 41c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yankees | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yankees | 56c | 92.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca02…66acbacked Royals | 12c | 90.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Yankees | 60c | 90.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Royals | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ca…4adfbacked Royals | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cc…e61ebacked Yankees | 60c | 62.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…eccabacked Yankees | 59c | 60.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…ec7ebacked Royals | 43c | 60.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Royals | 43c | 57.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…e82cbacked Royals | 44c | 52.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1c…422abacked Yankees | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…aa2cbacked Royals | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Royals | 53c | 47.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…48cabacked Royals | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…8d8cbacked Royals | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…3eacbacked Yankees | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Royals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Royals | 42c | 36.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…71bbbacked Yankees | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Royals | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…fb2dbacked Royals | 43c | 27.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…bd36backed Yankees | 60c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…cd8abacked Yankees | 60c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Yankees | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked Yankees | 60c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.