Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cedd86dc2941a42b56b18b46d846ca5535de92f93ad7e3facf2515a6faf190e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,226 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 26c | 16,180$4,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,206.67 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked No | 74c | 11,721$8,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.46 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 74c | 2,614$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.56 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,261$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 74c | 1,126$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 73c | 681.93$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53e…1aa3backed Yes | 27c | 540$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 367.76$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 276.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 199.36$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 137.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed No | 74c | 121.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 120.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc610…fd2dbacked Yes | 28c | 110.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 74c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 63.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 53.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 20c | 52.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 50.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 75c | 42.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 24c | 41.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 27c | 38.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 75c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9369…8b85backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…f088backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.