Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1697c926aa9b6b8f43a578f9150f003666bb9271f87f2f69871ad3d995718f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,900 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 3c | 32,843$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 49c | 4,221$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.3 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 0c | 4,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 36c | 1,350$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.82 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,146$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.98 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 49c | 665.44$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.63 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 33c | 629.35$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.53 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed No | 50c | 602.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 66c | 533.92$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.53 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Yes | 63c | 473.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.32 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 51c | 462.95$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.85 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 3c | 422.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…b131backed Yes | 75c | 399.93$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked No | 31c | 354.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 50c | 340$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.6 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Yes | 64c | 312.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 52c | 286.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.41 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 58c | 256.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd87…30a6backed Yes | 52c | 218.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f3…9576backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…ad3abacked Yes | 51c | 197.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…dc0abacked Yes | 52c | 192.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 52c | 179.74$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 62c | 172.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 39c | 160.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 49c | 152.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed No | 39c | 146$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Yes | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…1bdfbacked Yes | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…c39bbacked Yes | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 50c | 120.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 49c | 110.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 52c | 106.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…7e68backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…b7debacked Yes | 51c | 93.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 34c | 74.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 39c | 73.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 49c | 68.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 52c | 64.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 65c | 61.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…67ebbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 48c | 54.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 31c | 51.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 49c | 43.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…4f2dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…4985backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 51c | 37.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…d031backed No | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…4d26backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…d9b2backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9378backed Yes | 50c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…f00dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.