Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d070dbd14685b54ec10eb6400bfa9d194df71465dc27cf832fc4e0c12965a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 72c | 3,754$2,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.98 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 1,099$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 524.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 358$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 26c | 355.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 31c | 306.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 284.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 26c | 256.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 214.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 30c | 209$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 183.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked Yes | 34c | 183.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 23c | 170.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 142.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 32c | 123.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 30c | 115.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 37c | 107.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 66c | 105.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 104.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 39c | 102.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 94.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 37c | 74.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 37c | 73.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 58c | 67.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 65.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 55c | 64.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 59.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 21c | 59.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed Yes | 24c | 57.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 55.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 50.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 73c | 47.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 59c | 40.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 54c | 37.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 33.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 58c | 32.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 32.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 34c | 30.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 72c | 30.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 28.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 73c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 24.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.