Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d99fa5b88ce3cd19e4f3426ec9759a0fb48d28049021f08604125e64e7bcc0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 4c | 800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 454.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 7c | 312.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 78c | 309.1$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 222.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 74c | 192.09$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 150.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 147.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 21c | 123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 42c | 117.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 100.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 98.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 54c | 90.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 85.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 62.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 44c | 60.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 55.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 35c | 51.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 44.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 55c | 43.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 70c | 42.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 56c | 40.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 38c | 34.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 39c | 34.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 34.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 32.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 30.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 36c | 29.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 43c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5c35backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 26.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 70c | 26.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 24.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…2271backed Yes | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 78c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.