NBA · resolved market
NBA: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers 2024-04-23
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d22777272ea05c8c7c1f0fb1d544bce385c49e0d0b846c75420cf9da6420406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Bucks, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Pacers | 50c | 32,090$16,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,045 | 155 | 51%79 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Bucks | 50c | 10,790$5,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,395 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Bucks | 50c | 9,200$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Bucks | 50c | 7,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Bucks | 50c | 3,900$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Bucks | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bucks | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Bucks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…1eb4backed Pacers | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NBA: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers 2024-04-23this page
- NBA: Los Angles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks 2024-04-23Mavericks won
- NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns 2024-04-23Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.