Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d439d85c7f86ff20c24b2a9a6be6718241bd434546b3c29f7bffd63121c8920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 4,898$1,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.43 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Over | 63c | 869.84$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +144.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 61c | 737.7$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.7 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 67c | 718$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 59c | 570$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.05 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 37c | 394.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 40c | 324.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 31c | 308.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…1a34backed Over | 66c | 221.21$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 205.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 38c | 159.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e898backed Over | 62c | 103.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 70c | 56.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 61c | 31.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Over | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 65c | 24.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…e035backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5da…3d01backed Over | 63c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…9fc3backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Juventus FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.