Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4faa0994f7956f15f019a9ad42c466933f3beb7d02d291217600bbb6550e60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 55c | 3,024$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.12 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 40c | 1,227$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.24 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d93…0eccbacked Over | 55c | 781.27$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 53c | 680.13$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.82 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 58c | 614.43$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.06 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 463.06$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.38 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 54c | 398.58$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.3 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 44c | 335.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 315.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 305.47$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 208.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 42c | 168.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 110.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 57c | 107.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 92.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 45c | 63.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 46.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 41.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 48c | 40.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…2329backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 34.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.