Mls · resolved market
St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac0c8f2f073d2e0e4c235982efa9b71bd59ec5409f8dab4804f4fda0b76f78b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 40c | 999.99$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 875.28$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.11 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 65c | 618.54$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.99 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Under | 75c | 418.48$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 368.92$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 39c | 311.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 50c | 292$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 65c | 228.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 37c | 204.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…2db2backed Over | 35c | 164.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 37c | 154.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 133.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 41c | 104.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…94b3backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 25c | 99.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 15c | 90.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 65c | 68.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…7d58backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 66c | 48.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 34c | 43.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 67c | 37.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 32.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Under | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked Over | 58c | 18.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- St. Louis City SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.