Serie A · resolved market
Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6813ada7e83f32232cfbfb33f0ec45cfe0ab468952b9bc817dd4ec98a5fbef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 2,984$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.12 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,980$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.33 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Yes | 6c | 2,245$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 61c | 2,058$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6274…ce95backed Yes | 39c | 2,051$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 70c | 1,999$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 28c | 1,777$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.56 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 75c | 1,363$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.65 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 68c | 1,118$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.67 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 2c | 897$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.03 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +8.7wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +1,305.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 71c | 611.89$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.38 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 15c | 484.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 59c | 398.77$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7147…9a01backed Yes | 33c | 397.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 71c | 285.78$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…d418backed Yes | 30c | 201.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 29c | 200.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b4…08d7backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde43…ec94backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ae…b7b7backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618a…6196backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…f860backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…dd5dbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…0426backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…2032backed Yes | 29c | 199.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 80c | 166$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…6156backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…08d9backed Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +655.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 34c | 111.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 35c | 85.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…4bbdbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 68c | 40.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…fd01backed Yes | 34c | 34.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…e03cbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Torino vs. Napoli end in a draw?this page
- Will Napoli win on 2025-10-18?No won
- Will Torino win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.