MLB · resolved market
Jacob Misiorowski: Strikeouts O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6b43bab1ec8e72d37af38e05170325d18bb8b342887b571f2ba27b67dafb3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 54c | 2,904$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.55 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 46c | 2,440$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.4 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 46c | 530.06$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 274.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Over | 47c | 200.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 62c | 123$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…e64abacked Over | 48c | 99.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…ab75backed Over | 37c | 60.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760d…0786backed Over | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…82dfbacked Over | 47c | 31.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Under | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.