Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d90c85e73d4e42eb114760077b5d9e33a80cb2edbb595876348463333a349aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Under | 43c | 2,365$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.99 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 58c | 2,159$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.22 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed Under | 50c | 318.18$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Under | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Over | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 50c | 199$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Over | 50c | 157.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3665…864bbacked Under | 43c | 140.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 49c | 133.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…e977backed Under | 51c | 133.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 83.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…79a8backed Over | 55c | 80.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x109f…1691backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Under | 46c | 58.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…6e01backed Over | 77c | 56.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…af7dbacked Over | 50c | 56.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…fb0cbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 38.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…9ac6backed Over | 60c | 33.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…d9f7backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Over | 59c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.