Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da62f056e26afe8b904af925990631bfa96fb4b749f59091f01b3789609a2a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 79c | 595.14$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 49c | 325.86$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 16c | 316.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 13c | 312.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 74c | 261.26$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 28c | 239.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 117.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…5960backed Yes | 62c | 111.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 65c | 110.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 56c | 84.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe446…fc8fbacked No | 38c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 63c | 65.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…021abacked Yes | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…be27backed No | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b5…7627backed No | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cd…90d5backed No | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6377…b468backed Yes | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…c17bbacked No | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 48c | 35.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 43c | 35.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 47c | 35.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c8…49acbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f98…6aedbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…5c87backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…9f94backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…2accbacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.