MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dab346015361727d62d1d8cc05b3d86a6ba398950c87999692cb3d98eb8ffdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf30…8b95backed Over | 40c | 2,144$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 61c | 1,550$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.84 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 54c | 999.97$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.98 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 38c | 411.68$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.97 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 66c | 381.29$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 60c | 325.59$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 70c | 236.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 46c | 181.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 46c | 158.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 46c | 153.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Over | 62c | 102.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 98.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 60c | 83.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 60c | 74.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 73.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 46c | 70.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 46c | 70.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 46c | 70.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 46c | 49.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 59c | 49.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Under | 59c | 48.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +44%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 48c | 46.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 62c | 29.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 63c | 28.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 38c | 27.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 60c | 26.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 54c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 62c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.