MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a5197ee9ba160bf10302e14589087605ed2f54e7784ffeeb84ab233b2776e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 966.93$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 818.81$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 643.21$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 448.26$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 420.86$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.26 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 400.25$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 330.56$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 318.66$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Angels | 23c | 237.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 213.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 144.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 142.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 128.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 112.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 112.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 106.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…0924backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 106.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 94.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 67.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 63.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 63.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 60.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 59.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 58.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 57.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 53.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 53.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 53.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 43.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 39.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 39.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 39.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…7132backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 29.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 22.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…e226backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Los Angeles Angels | 67c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.