La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0e2344727bedfe2b748da1154321793d79a4e07d0d0ea88dcde3d3897940d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,886 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 6,252$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.06 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Over | 66c | 4,219$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.95 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 1,800$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 1,272$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 17c | 1,187$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 1,038$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 999.96$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 578.79$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 73c | 374.27$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Under | 15c | 286.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a72…28adbacked Under | 18c | 274.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 32c | 198.15$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6870…c687backed Under | 17c | 86.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 35c | 60.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 32c | 41.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Over | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 78c | 14.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.