La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd95122a563a5cdd157c0121e8024c5bf4fa514160ac476ed5cd9e479d4924cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,623 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 21c | 9,038$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,126.99 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 4,071$3,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.84 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 2,444$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.01 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 76c | 1,786$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed Under | 75c | 1,490$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 34c | 1,470$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.55 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 24c | 1,036$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.58 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 1,015$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.64 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 863.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.45 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Over | 26c | 741.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…bd88backed Under | 76c | 697.12$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 20c | 590$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Over | 27c | 512.59$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1deb…472fbacked Under | 79c | 445.82$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 26c | 375$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…9733backed Over | 32c | 357.06$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 76c | 326.19$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.29 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 18c | 318$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.76 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f2…24b0backed Under | 76c | 299.52$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 74c | 250$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 76c | 233.86$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 26c | 216.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc5…ada3backed Under | 72c | 144.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Under | 76c | 142.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…22cbbacked Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Under | 75c | 129.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…0745backed Under | 19c | 127.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 25c | 127.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 74c | 121$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Over | 26c | 121$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 118.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 24c | 113.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 105.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed Over | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Over | 24c | 90.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 14c | 81.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 28c | 81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 25c | 72.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 28c | 64.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Over | 19c | 64.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Under | 72c | 63.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 73c | 61.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 59c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Under | 76c | 49.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 73c | 48.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 78c | 46.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Under | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…5d5fbacked Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f9…7196backed Under | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…6d86backed Under | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 73c | 26.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Under | 75c | 25.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e27…acccbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 79c | 17.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.