La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eafc01f2713dbfdd9b98f518c10486ff258926cebcaf44161d2f6011b9925e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof Real Madrid CF, Elche CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,612 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Elche CF | 70c | 3,103$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.36 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…c795backed Real Madrid CF | 25c | 2,028$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Real Madrid CF | 22c | 1,250$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.86 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Real Madrid CF | 53c | 817.57$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.67 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Real Madrid CF | 28c | 550.11$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.08 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Real Madrid CF | 70c | 498.16$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Elche CF | 19c | 464$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Real Madrid CF | 33c | 290.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.76 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Elche CF | 72c | 278.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Real Madrid CF | 28c | 249.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Elche CF | 46c | 241.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Real Madrid CF | 47c | 147$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Real Madrid CF | 56c | 141.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Elche CF | 71c | 131.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Real Madrid CF | 29c | 131.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Real Madrid CF | 55c | 107.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Elche CF | 71c | 96.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Elche CF | 18c | 93.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Elche CF | 51c | 80.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Elche CF | 69c | 78.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Real Madrid CF | 31c | 77.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Real Madrid CF | 30c | 76.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Elche CF | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Elche CF | 71c | 59.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Elche CF | 27c | 57.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Elche CF | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Elche CF | 30c | 54.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Elche CF | 70c | 52.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Real Madrid CF | 31c | 42.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Real Madrid CF | 34c | 42.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Real Madrid CF | 80c | 34.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Real Madrid CF | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Elche CF | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Elche CF | 62c | 24.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Elche CF | 48c | 24.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Elche CF | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Elche CF | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Real Madrid CF | 59c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…c130backed Elche CF | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…c7adbacked Elche CF | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Elche CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.