Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e26ce63379686f4c5b0eb4ddd3103e97ef3d2ab9b302f42264fe9b400a79fbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 803.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 602.69$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.66 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 575.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 449.54$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 420.32$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 400.63$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 328.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 288.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 284.66$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 208.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 151$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 22c | 136.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 113.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 74c | 107.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 81.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 81.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 21c | 70.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 67.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 29c | 60.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 58.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 49c | 58.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 22c | 52.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 21c | 50.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 49.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 48.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed No | 55c | 47.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 38.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 78c | 38.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 38.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 33.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 28.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 27.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 24.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 47c | 24.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 22.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…513abacked No | 77c | 18.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.