Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf062aee37eaee9d45a0fe928630c362f38f568f2c84551ea870edc66def6046f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed Yes | 1c | 6,190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,167$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 420$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 397.4$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 387.24$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 348.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 324.26$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 283.08$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 265.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 260$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 253.09$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 213$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 28c | 207.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 183.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 178.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 71c | 176.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 165.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 158.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 51c | 156.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…096fbacked No | 63c | 139.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 68c | 139.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 135.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 132.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 101.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 96.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 96.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 96.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 93.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 84.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 83.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 69c | 72.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 32c | 70.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 63.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 50.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 29c | 45.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 35c | 44.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 29c | 42.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed Yes | 32c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a1…5704backed No | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 60c | 33.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 31.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 58c | 31.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 31.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 68c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 51c | 23.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 67c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 55c | 20.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 18.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.