Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4f387f6e0d4043efab3d39feb079fb8b1995b8d18e846b77bdd4ed9d7945e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd464…f291backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 26c | 261.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 73c | 179.7$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 21c | 147$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 134.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 77c | 129.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 105.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 97.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 83.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 72.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 67.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 65.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 25c | 60.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 57.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 55.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 77c | 55.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 52.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 49.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 45.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 38.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 74c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.