Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da0c5b742f6f0e8ccc2b5e23683d897336e1b3ec4e7c853c9d4db13b55bc9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 3c | 1,080$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 243.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.01 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 28c | 226.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.19 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 65c | 151.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 124.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 113$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 112.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 39c | 103.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 46c | 97.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 38c | 94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 66c | 74.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 26c | 67.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 65.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 30c | 60.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 70c | 52.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 26c | 47.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 75c | 35.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 30.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 72c | 24.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…8eb6backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 70c | 19.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 74c | 18.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 64c | 18.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 15.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 73c | 15.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.