Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Udvardy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e5e1da2ef7c7c29b062ebfd6f75a836890f50911c5844de11ecc568ad5d57a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udvardyof Ostapenko, Udvardy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Ostapenko | 60c | 16,804$10,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,073.22 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Udvardy | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Udvardy | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Udvardy | 41c | 2,250$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.5 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Udvardy | 41c | 2,195$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.12 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Udvardy | 41c | 955.92$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.66 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Ostapenko | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Udvardy | 39c | 449$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.89 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Udvardy | 41c | 413.24$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.81 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Udvardy | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Udvardy | 41c | 277.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Udvardy | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Udvardy | 41c | 182.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…7475backed Udvardy | 46c | 165.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…76ddbacked Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed Udvardy | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Udvardy | 41c | 105.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Udvardy | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Udvardy | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Udvardy | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Udvardy | 41c | 80.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Udvardy | 38c | 74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Udvardy | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Udvardy | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Udvardy | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Udvardy | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Udvardy | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Udvardy | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3834…d360backed Ostapenko | 60c | 21.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Udvardy (+1.5)this page
- Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna UdvardyJelena Ostapenko won
- Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs UdvardyUdvardy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.