Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e65532e971132d77a649146d5fa0fb164a5ae4b41af001677751ebaff041c5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,753$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 7c | 599.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 8c | 548.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 466.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 466.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 408.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 9c | 366$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 10c | 329.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 14c | 315.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 7c | 283.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 9c | 269.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 11c | 196.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 13c | 182.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 12c | 160.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 14c | 147.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8a…b9f8backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 98.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 25c | 55.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 64c | 39.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.