TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,120 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes46c2,707$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.541,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No54c459$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.8686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No45c443.48$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.330722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No54c417.24$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.272,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2161,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No54c350$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18957150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No63c292.32$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No30c284.01$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.622,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c272.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No19c238.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.384,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes46c195.83$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.542,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No57c192.8$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.41,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes47c192.37$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.962,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c180.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.934,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No14c141.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.014,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes38c139$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.211,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No63c129.51$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.492,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No30c122.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.33,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c120$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.624,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c117.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.039,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c113.42$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.416,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes35c103.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1210133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes49c99.46$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.722,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed Yes57c86.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4338560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes59c84.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6120327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No52c76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2460550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes67c72.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0127051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No53c69.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8613959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.934,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes34c67.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.742,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…154ebacked No61c62.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes38c61.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.159144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ed…21fdbacked No74c60.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick71cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes36c59$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8854735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No44c55.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.514,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.153,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c54.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.498,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No30c53.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No54c51.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8326744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No40c48.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.341,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2057…0629backed No64c47.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.234847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No63c46.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.636150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No51c45.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc756…0ec3backed Yes54c44.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4713266.7%88 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8a…b9f8backed Yes38c43.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.04837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No54c42.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1781558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No52c42.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1465353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c42.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.185,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca4…118dbacked No54c42.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.692259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes44c40.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6119039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes57c38.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.462,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda33…cd9abacked Yes78c37.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.445666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No66c36.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9987437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed Yes54c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.735658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7123560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…6f13backed Yes59c34.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.089546.3%44 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes47c29.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7919559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No58c28.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.550261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes43c27.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb26…55a5backed Yes47c26.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No66c26.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c26.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.694,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes46c26.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.082,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a2…e032backed No55c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35457.4%31 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes66c24.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3440337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes47c23.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3819166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes50c22.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.982,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No59c20.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No54c20.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.011,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.826067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed No55c18.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.415930.5%18 W · 41 L-17.1wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-53.6%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No65c18.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7274…c205backed Yes57c17.85$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7621361%130 W · 83 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c17.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.863,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes68c16.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4120546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.