Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6da9ecfac639c15547b2a66880ef3bdea5a55a32b141fc58450273bfed7100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Mertens, Bartunkova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Bartunkova | 23c | 7,010$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.29 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…e888backed Bartunkova | 25c | 6,000$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.66 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Mertens | 74c | 5,059$3,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.33 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Mertens | 77c | 4,732$3,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.33 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed Mertens | 74c | 3,253$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.32 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…c122backed Bartunkova | 11c | 2,745$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 460 | 30.4%140 W · 320 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bartunkova | 14c | 2,660$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bartunkova | 5c | 2,405$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.52 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Bartunkova | 21c | 2,038$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.56 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Bartunkova | 26c | 2,000$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Bartunkova | 8c | 1,761$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Mertens | 79c | 1,641$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.48 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Bartunkova | 23c | 1,622$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.54 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bartunkova | 22c | 1,447$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.17 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Bartunkova | 22c | 1,300$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Bartunkova | 3c | 1,240$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Mertens | 77c | 1,143$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bartunkova | 3c | 970.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Bartunkova | 25c | 946$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Bartunkova | 7c | 867.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mertens | 79c | 816.86$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.54 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Mertens | 80c | 777.5$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Mertens | 79c | 759.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 655 | 58.9%386 W · 269 L | -32.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Bartunkova | 13c | 663$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Bartunkova | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 454 | 57.9%263 W · 191 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mertens | 76c | 482.99$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mertens | 75c | 476.81$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Mertens | 77c | 463.24$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Bartunkova | 11c | 444$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Bartunkova | 9c | 442.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 287 | 26.8%77 W · 210 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mertens | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Bartunkova | 7c | 264.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…f5fcbacked Mertens | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Mertens | 78c | 252.28$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Bartunkova | 15c | 222.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e1…86b5backed Bartunkova | 6c | 199.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Mertens | 79c | 194$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bartunkova | 17c | 183$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Mertens | 76c | 130.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Bartunkova | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Bartunkova | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Mertens | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…0c83backed Mertens | 79c | 98.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Bartunkova | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…df8fbacked Mertens | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Bartunkova | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Bartunkova | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Bartunkova | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 268 | 37.3%100 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…80e4backed Mertens | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Mertens | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Mertens | 79c | 53.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…fb76backed Mertens | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bartunkova | 22c | 50.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fc…8d85backed Mertens | 78c | 50.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Bartunkova | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Mertens | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Mertens | 79c | 43.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Bartunkova | 26c | 42.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Mertens | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…ed3abacked Mertens | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 106 | 68.9%73 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mertens | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Mertens | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Mertens | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Mertens | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Mertens | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…a5f7backed Mertens | 77c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf044…6765backed Mertens | 77c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Mertens | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…98f5backed Mertens | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkovathis page
- Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Mertens vs BartunkovaMertens won
- Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5)Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.