Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e82c808dd6cc6ab57e516558790508a411589545b7cc6c448ecc2e2f699bc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 640.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 5c | 528$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 19c | 349.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 17c | 315.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No | 76c | 248.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 190.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 35c | 151.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 75c | 134.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 119.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 118.8$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 116.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 20c | 114.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 111.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 102.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 20c | 97.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 95.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 85.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 81.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 75.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 69.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 66.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 63.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 73c | 61.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 61.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 55.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 52.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 44.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 41.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 37.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 36.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 30c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Yes | 31c | 33.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 23.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 72c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed No | 72c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…caa3backed No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 77c | 16.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.